Withコロナ生活様式の読み
約3カ月ぶりの投稿となってしまいましたm(__)m この3カ月、深夜、土日問わず仕事に追われてしまっており、自分がブログをやっていたことすら忘れていたくらい忙しくて、ようやく手元の仕事が落ち着いたので久しぶりの投稿。。。
さて、多くの投資家の方が、「日経ベリタス」を愛読されていると思いますし私もその一人なのですが、今日の8/30号には三井住友AMの苦瓜さん（ファンドマネージャー）が出ていらっしゃいました。私が証券会社でIPOの引受業務を担当していたころ、苦瓜さんはIPO企業のロードショー訪問先では非常に人気の先であり（当時は大和住銀に所属されていました）、彼がIPO新株にオーダーを入れるかどうかが、その企業のIPOの成功のバロメーターになっていた程、彼のSmall to Mid Cap企業に対する眼識は評価されいたといえます。
さて、今回の同氏論考として、Withコロナにおける生活様式の変化によって、家で過ごす時間の増加（在宅勤務定着化）により、まずは、①生活必需品の需要拡大（家で調理したりする需要の拡大）、その後、②家具や家電などの耐久財の需要拡大、そして、少しでも広く住み心地のよい住宅に住みたいという意識の高まりを受けた、③戸建て建売需要（市場）の拡大というトレンドが起きるということが書かれていました。①⇒②⇒③という流れにストーリー性があってとても読みやすいですね。特にその中で、③に関する銘柄として、飯田グループHD、オープンハウスの業績拡大が期待できるというもの。確かに両者はパワービルダーの大手企業として、安定した業績が期待できそうです。
一方で、この記事を読んでいて少し気になったのが、昨日別に読んでいた記事で、国内の新設住宅着工戸数が、コロナを受けて2020年、2021年の2年間で（当初想定より）20万戸減少するだろう、という予測です（野村総研の予想ですね）。一見すると、上記の苦瓜さんの記事とは矛盾する内容ですが、住宅着工戸数は当然ながらマンションや戸建注文住宅の数値も含んでおり、この苦瓜さんの記事と新設住宅着工戸数の記事の両方を採り入れて推察すると、やはり、「広義では同じ業界に属するも、コロナ禍では伸びる企業とそうでない企業の差が顕著になってくる」ということなのかと思います。
私の場合、PEファンドに投資する外国人機関投資家と対話していると、頻繁に、「日本のマクロ市場は少子高齢化によって成長が期待できないなか、ファンドマネージャーとしてどのような業界に着目し勝ち筋を見出していくのか？」と質問を受けることがあるのですが、結局、上記のように業界全体で伸びるとか、そういう議論って説明が付かず、個別企業ベースで話をするしかないんですよね。我々はしばし、優れたPEファンドマネージャーとして、ベータ（β）、即ち経済全体のトレンドでなく、アルファ（α）、即ち個別企業が持つ優れたビジネスモデルにベットするんだよ、と説明しますが、苦瓜さんの記事はまさにこの点を説明しているものと思いました（当たり前の話ですけど…）。と言っても実際には未公開企業の場合、そんなにソーシング（投資先開拓）は簡単ではないですけどね。。
実際、我が家も都心に近いとはいえ所謂ペンシルハウスで汲々と生活していますので、少しでも広めの住宅に住みたいなと思い、数か月前には建売住宅の現地確認にも行ってみました。私でもそのような行動を取るのだから、多くの人も同じの筈です。ただ、そうはいってもコロナが終わったら、また以前のように勤務先に通う日々が戻ってくるかもしれず、結局、いまだ転居には踏み切れそうもありません。トレンドとしては、郊外のより広く快適な住宅への需要は拡大し、大手パワービルダーにとっては追い風になるかもしれませんが、コロナ終了後のトレンドの巻き戻しも確り考慮した上で、（個別企業の選別にあたっては今のトレンドに乗るだけでなく）、慎重な見極めが必要なフェーズに差し掛かっている気がします。
とにかく、この世の記事というものは全てバイアスがかかっているという健全な批判的精神で捉えるとともに、それでもなお自分の眼、感覚を研ぎ澄ませた上で、そのトレンドは続くと思える投資テーマ・企業に別途していくのが最善の策、と思われます。これまた当たり前か！(笑)
If you want to use the photo it would also be good to check with the artist beforehand in case it is subject to copyright. Best wishes. Aaren Reggis Sela
If you want to use the photo it would also be good to check with the artist beforehand in case it is subject to copyright. Best wishes. Aaren Reggis Sela
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